Dry forests, on which millions of the world's poorest and most marginalized people depend, are among the most threatened and neglected ecosystems globally. These forests, which occur in tropical regions with several months of severe or absolute drought, are the dominant features of the landscapes of most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including Ethiopia.

Dry forests and the ecosystem services they provide are under constant threat due to both natural and human-induced factors. Climate change scenarios for East Africa indicate a dramatic rise in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress that are likely to amplify the vulnerability of dry forest ecosystems and the people who depend on the services that such ecosystems support.

At the same time, the use of these forests is likely to play a crucial role in achieving many of the UN's sustainable development goals (SDGs). National and international goals of poverty alleviation and economic growth through sustainable utilization of forest resources on the one hand, and conservation efforts aimed at combating climate change through forest-based mitigation, on the other, are potentially conflicting and could create trade-offs in policy and in practice.

The combination of the aforementioned issues extend the existing challenge in planning sustainable development in Ethiopia and SSA more broadly. This project responds to the urgent need for integrative policies and management approaches and decision-support tools that can enhance resilient and sustainable utilization of dry forest ecosystem services and resources by conducting research aimed at filling key knowledge gaps linked to a lack of necessary data, models and actionable methods for linking research, policy and practice.

Primary objective

To fill key knowledge gaps, co-design an integrated analytical framework and develop a computer-based decision support tool that supports the sustainable management of dry forest resources and ecosystem services in the face of climate change.

Secondary objectives

• To investigate the rates, patterns and underlying drivers of deforestation and degradation of dry forests in the targeted regions
• To investigate the magnitude and direction of potential climate change impacts on dry forests and the people who depend on their ecosystem services
• To investigate the potential for reducing the socioeconomic consequences of climate change-driven changes in dry forest ecosystem services through different mixes of policy options and forest governance measures and practices
• To investigate the trade-offs and potential synergies between forest-based climate change mitigation and adaptation measures based on sustainable utilization and conservation of forestland and resources

Climate-smart solutions for dry forest ecosystem services and resources in Ethiopia

An abstract from this project was presented at the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics (SSFE) biennial meeting 2022 Umeå.

An abstract from this project was presented at the 10th World Conference on Ecological Restoration 2023 Darwin.

Klodens glemte skoger er i ferd med å dø ut

NMBU tilstades under klimaforhandlingane

The project hosted a session, “Tropical Forest conservation and management under a changing climate” at the European Conference of Tropical Ecology 2024 Lisbon.

The project co-hosted a session, “A spotlight on cutting-edge technologies for biodiversity monitoring in tropical ecosystems ” at the European Conference of Tropical Ecology 2024 Lisbon.

Three abstracts from this project were presented at the European Conference of Tropical Ecology 2024 Lisbon. You can find them on pages 199, 205, and 206 of the conference book of abstracts, available at the following link.

Tropical forests and trade-offs between sustainable development goals (SDGs): SDG 2 Zero hunger and SDG 13 Climate action

Edible indigenous fruit trees and shrubs in Tigray, Ethiopia

Five abstracts from this project and two abstracts partially supported by it were presented at the 26th IUFRO World Congress—the largest forest-related congress to date—with 4,300 delegates, 3,500 presentations, and over 70 showcased innovations. You can find them on pages 225, 1459, 1461, 1697, and 2395, as well as pages 293 and 3015 of the conference book of abstracts, available at the following link.

The project co-hosted a workshop, “ Fieldwork in the Tropics: The Good, the Bad, and the Downright Crazy ” at the European Conference of Tropical Ecology 2025 Amsterdam.

Aguilar-Tomasini, M.A., West, J.J., Gebrekirstos, A., Eid, T., Meressa, A.M. and Rannestad, M.M., Knowledge Gaps on Drivers of Change in East African Dry Forests: insights from a Systematic Literature Review. Ecological Processes.
DOI: 10.1186/s13717-025-00596-y

Kassun, B.W., Kallio, M., Trømborg, E. and Rannestad, M.M., 2025. Land use and land cover change, trade-offs, and synergies between ecosystem services in a dry Afromontane Forest. Journal for Nature Conservation, 85, p.126874 DOI:10.1016/j.jnc.2025.126874

Kassun, B.W., Kallio, A.M.I., Trømborg, E. and Rannestad, M.M., 2024. Vegetation density and altitude determine the supply of dry Afromontane Forest ecosystem services: Evidence from Ethiopia. Forest Ecology and Management, 552, p.121561. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121561

Publications Partially Supported by the Project

Haile, M., Birhane, E., Gebresamuel, G., Adaramola, M.S. and Rannestad, M.M., 2024. Application of biochar derived from expansive shrubs and limestone improved acidic soil characteristics. Carbon Management, 15(1), p.2364784. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2024.2364784

Tetemke, B.A., Birhane, E., Rannestad, M.M. and Eid, T., 2024. Aboveground biomass estimation and mapping using Sentinel-2 data in a dry afromontane forest. International Journal of Remote Sensing, pp.1-19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2024.2410958

Tesfay, A., Tewolde-Berhan, S., Birhane, E., Rannestad, M.M., Gebretsadik, A., Hailemichael, G., Haile, M. and Gebrekirstos, A., 2024. Edible indigenous fruit trees and shrubs in Tigray, Ethiopia. Trees, Forests and People, 16, p.100525. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2024.100525

Tesfay, A., Birhane, E., Gebremeskel, D., Meressa, A.M. and Rannestad, M.M., 2024. Financial returns of Rhamnus prinoides based agroforestry practice in Tigray, Ethiopia. Agroforestry Systems, 98(3), pp.679-696. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-023-00939-8

Negash, E., Birhane, E., Gebrekirstos, A., Gebremedhin, M.A., Annys, S., Rannestad, M.M., Berhe, D.H., Sisay, A., Alemayehu, T., Berhane, T. and Gebru, B.M., 2023. Remote sensing reveals how armed conflict regressed woody vegetation cover and ecosystem restoration efforts in Tigray, Ethiopia. Science of Remote Sensing, p.100108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.srs.2023.100108

Tesfay, A., Birhane, E., Gebrehiwot, K., Tesfay, G., Solomon, N., Abebe, B., Araya, T., Brhan, M. and Rannestad, M.M., 2023. Sustainability of frankincense production in Tigray, Ethiopia: an emergy synthesis. Journal of Forest Business Research, 2(2), pp.85-113. DOI: https://doi.org/10.62320/jfbr.v2i2.39